Is the Managerial Honeymoon Real and How Can It Shape Football Predictions?

The November international break is usually the time of the Premier League season when clubs who are struggling usually start to make managerial changes. Sometimes it’s because a team is falling short of a top-four finish target. Other times it’s because of a sudden losing streak, but mostly it’s because a team is staring at relegation.

As much turmoil as the sacking of a head coach can cause, there is another side to it as well. A new manager taking over will bring fresh ideas, and different levels of motivation, potentially bringing the squad morale up.

These are factors that can play into the new managerial boost, where teams suddenly start playing better. But is this reliable enough to shape football result predictions? Let’s find out here.

The New Manager Honeymoon

In a lot of situations, a team on a poor run of form just lacks confidence and belief. So when a new boss comes along, the players want to make sure that they get noticed to be part of the new manager’s plans going forward.

Psychologically, therefore, just making a change of manager, who also brings new coaching staff, training techniques and tactics, can feel like a breath of fresh air to a stale situation. It’s a good chance to reboot.

The 2022/23 Premier League

A record 13 managerial changes were made in the historical 2022/23 Premier League season which was three more than the previous highest record. It was a crazy season and at the start of April, seven of the bottom nine teams in the table had changed bosses. But what kind of impact did all those changes have across the league?

There were some tremendous boosts. Aston Villa brought in Unai Emery who claimed an average of 1.93 points per game, far superior to that of Steven Gerrard’s 0.82 per game, the man he replaced. Julen Lopetegui immediately upped the fortunes of Wolves on his arrival after replacing Bruno Lage.

But not all of them worked out. Graham Potter took over from Thomas Tuchel at Chelsea and produced a lower points average per game than his predecessor, as did Roberto De Zerbi who replaced Potter at Brighton.

Immediate Impacts?

When Ruud van Nistleroy took over Leicester City in early December 2024, the club were on a five-match winless streak, but the Foxes took a 3-1 win in his first game in charge. Vitor Pereira in his first game in charge of Wolves saw them win well away at Leicester in late December.

New Southampton manager Ivan Juric guided his side to a good draw away at Fulham. When Ruben Amorim took over at Man Utd, the Red Devils could only manage a 1-1 draw away at relegation-threatened Ipswich and he lost three of his first six league games in charge.

The Problem

The above examples highlight issues in this area – unpredictably. There is nothing tangible, no hard stats to look at from a new managerial perspective, and that’s a problem because betting predictions should rely heavily on statistics.

Teams change managers when things are going wrong. If a team has lost their last five games, scoring just three goals in total, they aren’t likely to produce a 3-0 winning performance just because of new tactics.

It could happen, of course, but it’s unlikely. The current form, goalscoring stats, goal conceded stats, xG stats and more are going to weigh more heavily on predictions than expecting a team to win solely because of a new manager.

Prediction Reliability

So this isn’t a feature that should have a big bearing on predictions, as there is nothing to base it on. It’s logical to think that a team that has spent the first half of the season in the relegation zone, will play a little harder in the first game under a new manager, especially at home.

But if that game is against a top-six side, the team is still no more likely to win than they had been under the previous manager. Against a fellow relegation candidate at home, perhaps that could be a massively timely boost to expect a win for a team with a new manager.

But it’s all extremely subjective and an x-factor for betting picks. The impact of a managerial change is something that should be analysed as another layer after all the usual study of form has been done.

Look Longer Term

No one can tell how players are going to react to a new manager. Sometimes things look like a good fit, but it just doesn’t work out that way. So whenever a new manager comes into the fold, watch the team’s form for a handful of matches first. It’s the period after the honeymoon period where the real test is.