Race for Glory: The Top Contenders for the 2023 Ballon d Or Crown

Race for Glory: The Top Contenders for the 2023 Ballon d Or Crown

The Ballon d Or is recognized as the most esteemed individual accolade in football, with every player aspiring to achieve it at some point.

The award was established in 1956, and the first recipient was England’s Stanley Matthews. Currently, the Ballon d Or is held by Karim Benzema, a prominent player most known for his stint with Real Madrid and as a French international, who claimed the award in 2022.

Each year, one player is crowned as the world’s finest player throughout a domestic season, and the upcoming 2023 award is anticipated to be fiercely contested.

At XScores, we have you covered with comprehensive information for the 2023 Ballon d Or ceremony, scheduled for Monday, October 30th, in Paris.

Key Contenders for 2023

The Ballon d Or competition is anticipated to be quite exceptional, due to the fact that the World Cup would occur during the 2022-23 season, with potential of causing it to be a distant memory by the time the votes were cast in August. Nevertheless, it was evident that the players who played a key role in Qatar had an advantage in contending for the Golden Ball award. This was despite the late-season focus on those who won domestic and European titles.

With that said, a handful of primary candidates have the highest probability of collecting the prestigious award. So, let’s look at those players most likely to lift the golden ball.

Lionel Messi

Lionel Messi made a valiant effort to relinquish his chance at an eighth Ballon d Or due to a period of inconsistent performance in the latter half of the 2022-23 season. However, his momentous victory in the World Cup is expected to secure him yet another Golden Ball accolade.

Following his departure from European football grows stronger, one may wonder if this will mark his eighth and ultimate triumph of the award. Nevertheless, his impressive performances for Inter Miami in the early stages indicate that he can deliver unstoppable displays.

When evaluating the latest odds at Irish bookmakers, the current price of 1/6 strongly suggests that Messi will make history and add an eighth Ballon d Or to his trophy cabinet. It’s rare for the oddsmakers to be wrong, with probabilities exceeding 80%.

At the bookmakers: 1/6, [1.17], [-600], [85.7% Implied Probability]

Erling Haaland

Manchester City had dominated English football but never achieved Champions League success until they acquired Erling Haaland from Borussia Dortmund last summer. The Norwegian sensation immediately impacted, breaking numerous records and scoring an impressive 36 goals in the Premier League. His contributions played a significant role in Manchester City’s triumph as they secured their fifth title in the past six seasons.

Under the guidance of Pep Guardiola, the team also clinched the FA Cup by defeating their arch-rivals, Manchester United, in the final. However, their most coveted achievement was winning the Champions League, which they accomplished with a final victory over Inter Milan.

Haaland’s remarkable goal tally of 52 in just 53 games for Manchester City, including 12 goals during their decisive 11-match winning streak in the Champions League, solidified his importance to the team’s success. Although the 23-year-old is currently the second-favourite behind Messi to win the prestigious Ballon d Or, the question remains whether he possesses enough talent to surpass the front-runner.

At the bookmakers: 7/2, [4.5], [-350], [22.2% Implied Probability]

Ballon d Or Dark Horses

In addition to the top two favourites, a few players could potentially surprise everyone. Kevin De Bruyne, who played a crucial role in Manchester City remarkable treble season, now has odds of 50/1, up from the initial 33/1. Despite consistently performing at a high level in both the Premier League and Champions League, De Bruyne will face tough competition from his teammate Rodri, whose odds are as low as 40/1.

Kylian Mbappe’s odds of 66/1 reflect his performance in the World Cup – impressive, but not enough to secure the victory. Although he has delivered memorable performances, such as his outstanding hat-trick in the final against Argentina, Mbappe faces a difficult challenge with Lionel Messi and Erling Haaland leading the pack. These talented players have a significant hurdle to overcome to claim the top prize.

Voting Process & Judges

The winner of the Ballon d Or is determined by a panel of national team captains, coaches, and journalists representing FIFA’s top-ranked member nations. Each participant selects their top five choices from a list of 30 finalists, and each ranking is assigned a specific point value or number of votes.

• First: Five points
• Second: Four points
• Third: Three points
• Fourth: Two points
• Fifth: One point

Unsurprisingly, the player who accumulates the highest number of points in the voting process is crowned the Ballon d Or winner for that year.

Factors at Play

Nominees must meet specific general criteria to be selected and voted for. These criteria play a crucial role in calculating Ballon d Or points.

Performance

• Goal scoring
• Assists/Playmaking
• Defensive attributes

Consistency

• High-level football throughout a calendar year in all competitions
• Statistical consistency
• Stepping up in high-stakes games

Influence

• Trophies won (club & country)
• Leadership

 Recent Trends

Players from 20 different countries have won the aforementioned prize, although only nine nations have produced multiple winners. It is worth noting that Poland narrowly missed out on this list due to Robert Lewandowski’s unfortunate absence from the 2020 Ballon d Or, which was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The striker was widely expected to win the award that year following his exceptional performances for Bayern Munich.

In recent history, the Ballon d Or has largely been dominated by two players: Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi. These two individuals have held a tight grip on the award for most of the past two decades, with only two other players claiming the accolade since 2008.

Ballon d Or 2023 Shortlist